The right argument on renewables

November 25th, 2009

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by Dana Blankenhorn

I am a fan of Al Gore. I do not doubt global warming.

But the wrong arguments have been made on renewables all along.

The current Climate Bill is, in fact, a jobs bill.

Whatever you think of climate change the fact is we’re subsidizing a market sector in hydrocarbons that is not growing, and not producing jobs.

Our Department of Energy still pays for oil and gas research. Corporate taxes are kept low in states with heavy concentrations of hydrocarbons. Energy companies still enjoy accelerated depreciation.

This despite decades of enormous profit, and increased efficiencies which mean that oil, gas and coal don’t really create many jobs. And the cost of using hydrocarbons, pollution and habitat damage, are never accounted for at all.

In contrast, our economic rivals are passing all sorts of incentives for renewable development. China now leads in solar cell production. Germans have used market incentives to construct nearly 24,000 megawatts of wind power.

Energy for the Sun, from the wind, and from the tides is a growth industry. It increases the self-sufficiency of any country that uses these resources. It creates thousands of new jobs. So Germany’s economy is recovering and China’s is back to rocketing along, while we deal with unemployment over 10%.

Transferring market incentives from hydrocarbons to renewables is national security, and it’s sound economic policy. What excuse can there be for continuing to subsidize a failing sector? Next you’ll want to hand money to newspaper barons or the owners of soccer franchises.

Skeptics claim, using hacked e-mails, that all climate science is biased. So what if it is. Anyone think smoke is good for you? Anyone like having mercury in their groundwater? Is there any chance at all that this is good for you?

But ignore that for a moment. Ignore the picture of Mt. Kilmanjaro above, which is visibly losing its ice cap, meaning central Africa loses its last natural climate moderator. Forget that the Arctic Ice will be gone in 10 years, that the seas are visibly rising. Stick your fingers in your ears and go “na na na na” all day long.

What about our national security? What about our economic competitiveness? What about jobs?

Right now, in Auburn Hills, Michigan, in the shadow of the Silverdome that sold for less than a Manhattan apartment this week, a company called United Solar Ovonic is making flexible solar modules. It brought in $100 million last year.

You really think America should be investing in Sunoco instead?

Nothing against Sunoco. I went to college with its CEO. But tax law and market incentives represent investments in our economy.

I’d rather America had its money on Stan Ovshinsky, the CEO of United Solar. I think we’ll get a better bang for our tax deferment buck with him. And with thousands of other entrepreneurs like him.

It doesn’t matter whether we disagree on global warming. We’re talking economics here. Lynn Elsenhans is a great lady, but as a taxpayer I’d rather have my money on Stan.

That’s what the issue should be.

Font: smartplanet

Mankind Using Earth’s Resources at Alarming Rate

November 24th, 2009

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WASHINGTON – Humanity would need five Earths to produce the resources needed if everyone lived as profligately as Americans, according to a report issued Tuesday.

As it is, humanity each year uses resources equivalent to nearly one-and-a-half Earths to meet its needs, said the report by Global Footprint Network, an international think tank.

“We are demanding nature’s services — using resources and creating CO2 emissions — at a rate 44 percent faster than what nature can regenerate and reabsorb,” the document said.

“That means it takes the Earth just under 18 months to produce the ecological services humanity needs in one year,” it said.

And if humankind continues to use natural resources and produce waste at the current rate, “we will require the resources of two planets to meet our demands by the early 2030s,” a gluttonous level of ecological spending that may cause major ecosystem collapse, the report said.

Global Footprint Network calculated the ecological footprint — the amount of land and sea needed to produce the resources a population consumes and absorb its carbon dioxide emissions — of more than 100 countries and of the entire globe.

The think-tank worked out how many resources the planet has, how much humans use, and who is using what.

Back in 1961, the entire planet used just over slightly more than half of Earth’s biocapacity.

Today, 80 percent of countries use more biocapacity than is available within their borders. They import resources from abroad, deplete their own stocks and fill “waste sinks,” such as the atmosphere and ocean, with carbon dioxide.

The average American has an ecological footprint of nine global hectares (23 acres), or the equivalent of 17 US football fields.

The average European’s footprint is half that size, but still too big to be sustainable in the long term.

At the other end of the scale are impoverished countries like Malawi, Haiti, Nepal or Bangladesh, where the footprints are around half a global hectare, or 1.25 acres — often not even enough to provide for basic food, shelter and sanitation, the report said.

But there are relatively easy measures that can be taken to slow the rot.

“In most high-income, industrialized countries like the US and European countries, the biggest part of the ecological footprint is the carbon footprint,” Nicole Freeling, a spokeswoman for the Global Footprint Network, told AFP.

“One of the biggest things such a country can do to reduce its ecological footprint is to manage energy more efficiently and effectively — for example, by investing in renewable energy and clean tech on the one hand, and resource-efficient infrastructure and compact urban development on the other,” she said.

Changing consumption habits can also reduce the global footprint.

“While people living at or below subsistence levels may need to increase their consumption to move out of poverty, more affluent people can reduce consumption and still improve their quality of life,” Freeling said.

© 2009 AFP

Font: commondreams.org

Full text: Climate science statement

November 24th, 2009

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This is a joint statement from the Met Office, the Natural Environment Research Council and the Royal Society on the state of the science of climate change ahead of the Copenhagen climate conference

Drought

The UK is at the forefront of tackling dangerous climate change, underpinned by world class scientific expertise and advice. Crucial decisions will be taken soon in Copenhagen about limiting and reducing the impacts of climate change now and in the future. Climate scientists from the UK and across the world are in overwhelming agreement about the evidence of climate change, driven by the human input of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

As three of the UK’s leading scientific organisations involving most of the UK scientists working on climate change, we cannot emphasise enough the body of scientific evidence that underpins the call for action now, and we reinforce our commitment to ensuring that world leaders continue to have access to the best possible science. We believe this will be essential to inform sound decision-making on policies to mitigate and adapt to climate change up to Copenhagen and beyond.

The 2007 assessment report of the UN’s climate change panel (the IPCC) – made up of the world’s foremost climate scientists – provided unequivocal evidence for a warming climate, and a high degree of certainty that human activities are largely responsible for global warming since the middle of the 20th century. However, the IPCC process is based only on information already published and even since the last assessment report the scientific evidence for dangerous, long-term and potentially irreversible climate change has strengthened significantly:

• Global carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise, and methane concentrations have started to increase again after a decade of near stability;
• The decade 2000-09 has been warmer, on average, than any other decade in the previous 150 years;
• Observed changes in precipitation (decreases in the subtropics and increases in high latitudes) have been at the upper limit of model projections;
• Arctic summer sea ice cover declined suddenly in 2007 and 2008, prompting the realisation that this environment may be far more vulnerable to change than previously thought;
• There is increasing evidence of continued and accelerating sea-level rises around the world.

We expect some of the most significant impacts of climate change to occur when natural variability is exacerbated by long-term global warming, so that even small changes in global temperatures can produce damaging local and regional effects. Year on year the evidence is growing that damaging climate and weather events – potentially intensified by global warming – are already happening and beginning to affect society and ecosystems. This includes:

• In the UK, heavier daily rainfall leading to local flooding such as in the summer of 2007;
• Increased risk of summer heat waves such as the summers of 2003 across the UK and Europe;
• Around the world, increasing incidence of extreme weather events with unprecedented levels of damage to society and infrastructure. This year’s unusually destructive typhoon season in south-east Asia, while not easy to attribute directly to climate change, illustrates the vulnerabilities to such events;
• Sea level rises leading to dangerous exposure of populations in, for example, Bangladesh, the Maldives and other island states;
• Persistent droughts, leading to pressures on water and food resources, and the increasing incidence of forest fires in regions where future projections indicate long term reductions in rainfall, such as south-west Australia and the Mediterranean.

These emerging signals are consistent with what we expect from our projections, giving us confidence in the science and models that underpin them. In the absence of action to mitigate climate change, we can expect much larger changes in the coming decades than have been seen so far.

Some countries and regions are already vulnerable to climate variability and change, but in the coming decades all countries will be affected, regardless of their affluence or individual emissions. Climate change will have major consequences for food production, water availability, ecosystems and human health, migration pressures, and regional instability. In the UK, we will be affected both directly and indirectly, through the effects of climate change on, for example, global markets (notably in food), health, extent of flooding, and sea levels.

The accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to long-term changes in the climate system that will persist for millennia. Our growing understanding of the balance of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans and terrestrial systems tells us that the greater the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the greater the risk of long-term damage to Earth’s life support systems. Known or probable damage includes ocean acidification, loss of rain forests, degradation of ecosystems, and desertification. These effects will lead to loss of biodiversity and reduced agricultural productivity. Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases can substantially limit the extent and severity of long-term climate change.

Summary

The 2007 IPCC assessment, the most comprehensive and respected analysis of climate change to date, states clearly that without substantial global reductions of greenhouse gas emissions we can likely expect a world of increasing droughts, floods and species loss, of rising seas and displaced human populations. However even since the 2007 IPCC assessment the evidence for dangerous, long-term and potentially irreversible climate change has strengthened. The scientific evidence which underpins calls for action at Copenhagen is very strong. Without co-ordinated international action on greenhouse gas emissions, the impacts on climate and civilisation could be severe.

• Prof Julia Slingo, chief scientist, Met Office; Prof Alan Thorpe, chief executive, Natural Environment Research Council; Lord Rees, president, the Royal Society

Font: The Guardian

Antarctic ice loss vaster, faster than thought: study

November 23rd, 2009

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Antarctic ice loss vaster, faster than thought: study

PARIS (AFP) – The East Antarctic icesheet, once seen as largely unaffected by global warming, has lost billions of tonnes of ice since 2006 and could boost sea levels in the future, according to a new study.

Published Sunday in Nature Geoscience, the same study shows that the smaller but less stable West Antarctic icesheet is also shedding significant mass.

Scientists worry that rising global temperatures could trigger a rapid disintegration of West Antarctica, which holds enough frozen water to push up the global ocean watermark by about five metres (16 feet).

In 2007 the UN Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) predicted sea levels would rise 18 to 59 centimetres (7.2 to 23.2 inches) by 2100, but this estimate did not factor in the potential impact of crumbling icesheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

Today many of the same scientist say that even if heat-trapping CO2 emissions are curtailed, the ocean watermark is more likely to go up by nearly a metre, enough to render several small island nations unlivable and damage fertile deltas home to hundreds of millions.

More than 190 nations gather in Copenhagen next month to hammer out a global climate deal to curb greenhouse gases and help poor countries cope with its consequences.

University of Texas professor Jianli Chen and colleagues analysed nearly seven years of data on ocean-icesheet interaction in Antarctica.

Covering the period up January 2009, the data was collected by the twin GRACE satellites, which detect mass flows in the ocean and polar regions by measuring changes in Earth’s gravity field.

Consistent with earlier findings based on different methods, they found that West Antarctica dumped, on average, about 132 billion tonnes of ice into the sea each year, give or take 26 billion tonnes.

They also found for the first time that East Antarctica — on the Eastern Hemisphere side of the continent — is likewise losing mass, mostly in coastal regions, at a rate of about 57 billion tonnes annually.

The margin or error, they cautioned, is almost as large as the estimate, meaning ice loss could be a little as a few billion tonnes or more than 100.

Up to now, scientists had thought that East Antarctica was in “balance,” meaning that it accumulated as much mass and it gave off, perhaps a bit more.

“Acceleration of ice loss in recent years over the entire continent is thus indicated,” the authors conclude. “Antarctica may soon be contributing significantly more to global sea level rise.”

Another study published last week in the journal Nature reported an upwardly-revised figure for Antarctic temperatures during prior “interglacials”, warm periods such as our own that have occurred roughly every 100,000 years.

During the last interglacial which peaked some 128,000 years ago, called the Eemian Period, temperatures in the region were probably six degree Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than today, which is about 3 C (5.4 C) above previous estimates, the study said.

The findings suggest that the region may be more sensitive than scientists thought to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere that were roughly equivalent to present day levels.

During the Eemian, sea levels were five-to-seven metres higher than today.

Font: AFP

Where’s the Clean Energy?

November 20th, 2009

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by Robert S. Eshelman

It was in Germany that Ed Regan realized Gainesville, Florida, was going about things all wrong. The assistant manager at Gainesville Regional Utility (GRU) was out looking for ways to boost his city’s renewable energy capacity. “Germany was a game-changer,” Regan says. Wind turbines and solar panels seemed to be everywhere. He soon learned the secret.

Before Regan’s June 2008 trip, the GRU was trying to promote small-scale renewable energy generation by offering hefty cash rebates to customers who installed solar photovoltaic panels. And it had a “net metering program” that allowed customers who generate their own power to run their electricity meters backward, thereby cutting their electric bills potentially to zero.

But the programs weren’t attracting a great deal of interest. The utility’s rebate program had yielded only 300 kilowatts of solar power capacity–roughly the amount of electricity used by 160 hair dryers–and it cost a lot of money.

The difference between Gainesville and Germany was that Germany had a national feed-in tariff. Under this system, energy consumers can become renewable energy producers by installing solar panels on their roof or a wind turbine in their backyard and selling their energy to the local utility. These customers-turned-producers receive above-market prices for their energy, often for up to twenty years. With the feed-in tariff, Germany boosted its renewable energy production from 1 percent of its total output in 1995 to 12 percent in 2005. By 2007 renewables supplied 14 percent of Germany’s electricity. Denmark and Spain also have successful feed-in tariff programs.

So this past March, Gainesville rolled out its own feed-in tariff. GRU now pays twice the retail cost for every kilowatt of solar power-generated electricity. The extra cost means a small increase in electrical bills for all utility consumers, less than a dollar per month per household.

But in order to keep consumer prices down, the feed-in tariff is limited to expand by only 4 megawatts of solar photovoltaic capacity per year, for six years. And the first year’s quota was snapped up in just two weeks. The program now has a waiting list through 2016. Rather than a bunch of homeowners each installing a few panels, the Gainesville quotas were mostly taken by commercial investors.

Among them is Dave Davis, a north Florida native who after sixty-five years in wholesale and retail gasoline distribution is getting into solar. “I have six acres out back where I am going to put the solar,” says Davis, whose Southern drawl makes the word sound exotic, almost foreign: soh-laar. “I been on both ends of the oil companies,” he says, “and I’d like to see a lot more solar here in Florida. A lot less dependency.”

For Davis, the small solar farm represents income security for his heirs. But the larger wisdom of feed-in tariffs is also clear. Studies show that such laws boost green energy production. And feed-in tariffs transform the economic function of the electrical grid: no longer is it a centralized technological embodiment of corporate power and hierarchy. With feed-in tariff legislation, electricity starts running both ways along the wires. And by extension, so does money and political power.

Perhaps that’s what’s keeping feed-in tariff legislation from spreading in the United States: it begins ever so slightly to break the near-monopoly of the private utilities. It creates new economic constituencies (small, clean-power producers), and it is a reassertion of the state’s right to control its infrastructure.

Gainesville’s solar program is one of many attempts to boost green energy production across the country. From California to Vermont, an increasing number of states and municipalities are moving to adopt feed-in tariffs and other innovative strategies for boosting clean energy production and reducing energy consumption.
Unfortunately, these efforts are Lilliputian in the face of climate change. The United States and other developed countries must cut carbon emissions by 80 to 95 percent over the next few decades to avoid very serious climate change. That goal is not impossible to meet. Numerous studies indicate that the United States could dramatically improve its renewable energy capacity if it had the right policies and financing. But in conversations with public officials, utility operators, small-scale energy producers and green energy advocates, one issue emerged again and again: the United States lacks long-term national clean energy planning. Basically, the government has done little to end the monopolistic hold that private utilities and fossil fuel industries have on energy policy.

First, though, some good news: more than thirty states have implemented renewable- or alternative-energy portfolio standards. These are policies that require electricity providers to obtain a minimum percentage of their power from renewable energy resources by a certain date. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger recently increased his state’s standard from 20 percent by 2010 to 33 percent by 2020. Several other states are shooting for 25 percent by 2025, with Hawaii aiming for 70 percent by 2030. And California, Hawaii, Wisconsin and Vermont all have feed-in tariff legislation.

“You can’t really look at renewables in a vacuum, though,” says Terry Tamminen, a climate change expert at the New America Foundation. “The other side of the fight to reduce carbon emissions is energy efficiency. Progress on these two fronts makes me much more optimistic about what can be accomplished in meeting greenhouse-gas reduction targets.”

Here, too, states are taking the lead. Passed in 1978, California’s aggressive energy efficiency standards have reduced emissions by 30 million metric tons annually. That is equivalent to taking 6 million passenger cars off of the streets each year. Seven other states have set similar standards. Fifteen years ago, a two-kilowatt rooftop solar panel could meet 40 percent of a typical consumer’s energy needs. Today, through technological improvements to most household heating and cooling systems and appliances, that same solar panel could meet 65 percent of that need. Not only are customers’ bills declining; so are their carbon footprints.

The federal government continues to lag behind reform-minded states and municipalities. Both versions of climate change legislation under debate in Washington do little to boost clean energy production; the emission reduction targets are soft, and neither bill includes a feed-in tariff provision.

“The House bill and the drafts in the Senate are weak and wouldn’t add anything to what states have already done,” says Steve Clemmer, research director of the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Clean Energy Program. Without long-term, stable planning at the national level, many investors will be too afraid to sink the huge sums of capital required to build out the massive clean energy infrastructure needed.

The one piece of federal support for clean energy that has existed for more than a decade is a set of production and investment tax credits for renewable energy projects. But Congress frequently allows these credits to lapse before reinstating them, thus creating market uncertainty that scares off investors who might otherwise be willing to build wind farms, solar plants or tidal power facilities.

“If the federal government only offers production tax credits for one or two or three years at a time, it doesn’t give investors enough time to deploy capital and ensure it’s there when projects come on line,” explains Clemmer. Many projects depend on such credits to make money, so the threat of losing the credits drives investors elsewhere.

Opponents of green energy argue that it needs public subsidies because it cannot compete in a free market. Greens disagree: “The idea that we have a level playing field for alternative fuels production in the US is patently absurd,” says Steve Kretzmann, executive director of Oil Change International. He and others point out that the government has given tax breaks, cheap recourse leases and direct investments to fossil fuel industries for more than a generation.

In just the past few years, from 2002 to 2008, coal, oil and natural gas companies received $72.5 billion in subsidies, while the alternative energy sector benefited from $29 billion–more than half of which went to biofuel industries, which are essentially the agribusiness lobby.

A robust federal clean energy policy would have positive spinoff effects throughout the economy. Infinia Corporation, which builds concentrated solar power systems, illustrates this point: upward of 90 percent of its components come from–of all places–the automobile parts industry.

“When we speak to our suppliers,” says an Infinia vice president, Peter Brehm, “they are very excited by the growth possibilities in clean energy, which contrast sharply with the lack of growth, or even contraction, in the automotive industry.” Infinia employs just 150 people globally, but its example points to the potential for a green rehabilitation of the nation’s battered manufacturing sector.

The Apollo Alliance, a national coalition of labor, business, environmental and community groups, estimates that a ten-year, $500 billion investment would create more than 5 million green-collar jobs, many in the highly paid skilled-crafts sectors. A $100 billion stimulus package spent over two years, according to the Center for American Progress, could net 2 million jobs in clean energy industries. Although projections of a clean energy-driven economic recovery vary, a strong consensus has emerged since last year’s economic meltdown that a strong stimulus package promoting green energy could spur job recovery.

The Treasury Department recently allocated $500 million in grants and tax breaks to renewable energy producers, bringing the Obama administration’s total funding for green power industries to $1 billion. The administration has committed to extending that amount to $3 billion, which could bring about a doubling of renewable energy production. Even so, this amount remains a fraction of what fossil fuel industries receive.
Another problem is that the clean energy industry, such as it is, is hardly distinct from the old fossil fuel-dependent energy sector. Most utilities that invest in and sell green power also burn coal and gas. And their boards interlock with the fossil fuel industry.

Clean industry trade groups, like the American Wind Energy Association, have boards that include representatives from utility groups such as General Electric and T. Boone Pickens’s Mesa Power. Is it any wonder that the alternative energy sector lacks a robust lobbying effort? After all, these are not environmental organizations; they are trade groups seeking profits for their members. And within their ranks lurk members that stand to lose millions through greater energy efficiencies or through requirements to shift toward renewables.

Meanwhile, the old fossil fuel sector lobbies hard. Through the first nine months of 2009 the oil and natural gas industries spent a staggering $120.7 million on lobbying. Coal companies spent an additional $10.4 million; electric utilities, $108.2 million. Conversely, alternative energy industries–including biofuel companies–have spent $23 million, with the American Wind Energy Association alone accounting for a fifth of that amount. Most other renewables trade groups spend tens of thousands rather than millions of dollars.

The alternative energy sector’s deficiencies aside, the problem remains one of federal action–or rather inaction. Damon Moglen, global warming director at Greenpeace, says, “We have the answers. We are not talking about developing new technologies in order to shift from fossil fuels to renewables. We are talking about using available, off-the-shelf renewable energy systems to radically change the way we produce energy. Ultimately, it’s a question of political will.”

In Germany, land of the feed-in tariff, local and state governments led the way for years, but eventually the federal government got on board. The question for Congress and the Obama administration is, When will they follow our states and municipalities, and fully embrace clean energy?

Font: The Nation

Copenhagen climate change summit: The issues

November 17th, 2009

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by Damian Carrington

Deforestation Continues In Sumatra

What is the Copenhagen climate change summit?

The UN meeting is the deadline for thrashing out a successor to the Kyoto protocol, with the aim of preventing dangerous global warming. It will run for two weeks from 7 December and is the latest in a series that trace their origins to the 1992 Earth summit in Rio.

What’s the bottom line?

Climate scientists are convinced the world must stop the growth in greenhouse gas emissions and start making them fall very soon. To have a chance of keeping warming under the dangerous 2C mark, cuts of 25%-40% relative to 1990 levels are needed, rising to 80%-95% by 2050. So far, the offers on the table are way below these targets.

Who should make the cuts?

That is a crunch issue. The industrialised nations such as the US, UK, Japan and others have emitted by far the most carbon and still emit vast amounts per person, so have a responsibility to make the deep cuts scientists demand. But emissions from emerging economies such as China and India are surging, and any global limit on emissions needs curbs on those nations, too. Yet, per person, those nations have small carbon footprints and millions of people in deep poverty – 400 million Indians live without electricity, for example. So China, India and others can argue they need to be allowed to continue to pollute for a while as they improve their citizens’ lives. Balancing the responsibilities for cuts is a key part of the negotiations.

Who is going to pay?

The other crunch issue. There is an argument that, in the long term, a low-carbon economy will be cheaper than a fossil-fuelled one, and represents a fantastic investment. But time is short and there will be costs in the near term. All agree that the poorest nations need urgent help. Citizens in places from Haiti to Sudan to Bangladesh have done virtually nothing to pollute the atmosphere, but are bearing the worst impacts of floods and droughts. Richer nations will need to pay billions from now – some call it reparations for damage to the Earth’s climate. It will also cost a lot to build the global clean energy infrastructure essential to staunch the carbon from coal and gas power stations, responsible for a large part of global emissions. For the fast emerging economies, such as India, the ideal is to skip the high-carbon growth phase entirely and go straight to renewables and perhaps nuclear power. Again, rich nations will be expected to pick up the tab. for this -– iIf they don’t, there is little incentive to stop building coal-fired plants. Gordon Brown and the EU have suggested $100bn a year from 2020 would cover the global climate change bill. But estimates from development groups reach up to four times that amount. Finding a figure that all nations accept is the second key part of the negotiations.

What about carbon trading?

In theory, buying permits to pollute from those who can cut their emissions most cheaply is attractive – maximum bang per buck and a flow of cash to pay for investments. However, from one perspective, this kind of offsetting simply looks like paying poorer people to clear up the mess left by the rich, who can then continue to pollute. Also, if carbon trading is to cut real emissions, the cap set on the market has to be tight and, to date, political imperatives have overridden those of the planet. Nonetheless, carbon trading will remain at the heart of any treaty sealed in Copenhagen, as it was in the Kyoto treaty.

Is stopping deforestation an easier way to cut emission?

About 40% of all the carbon emitted by human activity has come from razing forests. Stopping deforestation is, in principle, cheap and simple: do not cut them down. But paying people – via carbon credits – not to fell trees soon becomes complex. Who really owns the trees? Were they going to be chopped down anyway? And how do you verify what actually happens? Finding a solution to these issues is one of the strongest hopes for the Copenhagen summit.

What are the prospects for a Copenhagen deal?

Negotiations held last week in Barcelona were grim: all now acknowledge that no legal deal is possible in Copenhagen. A miracle is needed for a triumph. President Barack Obama is the one who could deliver it, but it is very unlikely. Most likely is a hopeful fudge in which all parties remain on speaking terms and seal the deal in 2010. A total collapse would leave 20 years’ of negotiations in tatters and the world unprotected against the ravages of global warming. It is also unlikely, but not as unlikely as a miracle.

Font: The Guardian

Brazil celebrates 45% reduction in Amazon deforestation

November 17th, 2009

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A police offensive and the global economic crisis have combined to produce the largest fall in more than 20 years

by Tom Phillips

Deforestation in Novo  Progresso, Pará, in 2004 was the second worst on record

The Brazilian government yesterday announced a “historic” drop in the deforestation of the Amazon, weeks before world leaders meet in Copenhagen for climate change talks.

Brazilian authorities said that between August 2008 and July this year, deforestation in the world’s largest tropical rainforest fell by the largest amount in more than 20 years, dropping by 45% from nearly 13,000 square kilometres to around 7,000 square kilometres (5,000 square miles to 2,700 square miles).

“It is an excellent figure – a historic result,” the environment minister, Carlos Minc, said in the capital, Brasilia.

“It is a substantial drop,” said the head of Brazil’s Space Institute, Gilberto Câmara, according to the government news provider Agência Brasil. He claimed it was the most significant cut in deforestation since his institute started monitoring rainforest destruction with satellite technology in 1988.

“This is a very happy moment – to note that the efforts of Brazilian society to contain the deforestation of the Amazon have reached a very satisfactory level.”

The new figures, reportedly rushed out before the Copenhagen talks, come days after Brazil announced ambitious plans to cut carbon emissions by 2020, partly by continuing to battle illegal deforestation.

This week, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, said her country would take proposals for voluntary reductions of 38-42% by 2020 to the Copenhagen summit. Britain’s prime-minister, Gordon Brown, wrote to Brazil’s president this week to congratulate him on the move.

Environmentalists welcomed the news of a drop in rainforest destruction, with Greenpeace’s Amazon director, Paulo Adario, claiming that, “whenever the government followed the law, deforestation fell”. But he warned: “We must stay alert so that this falling trend becomes consolidated and allows us to achieve the dream of zero deforestation in the Amazon. It is an important drop – but a lot of forest is still coming down.”

Rousseff said the figures showed the government had “done its homework” in order to combat illegal rainforest destruction. She pointed to federal police raids on illegal logging operations across the Amazon region, and government attempts to provide economic alternatives to destruction. Since February 2008 the government has been waging an “unprecedented” campaign against the loggers, dispatching hundreds of heavily armed agents to remote rainforest towns where destruction was out of control.

But, in a statement, Greenpeace activists in Brazil said the world financial crisis had also played a part in silencing the chainsaws. “The crisis … has contributed to helping put the breaks on the rhythm of destruction, with a fall in the demand for Amazon products linked to deforestation such as meat, soy and timber,” Greenpeace said.

Tellingly, Mato Grosso, a soy producing Amazonian state that has seen its forests ravished in recent years largely as a result of the Chinese demand for soy, saw a 65% drop in deforestation.

Font: The Guardian

Climate change will devastate Africa, top UK scientist warns

November 17th, 2009

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Professor Sir Gordon Conway warns continent will face intense droughts, famine, disease and floods

by John Vidal

Drought starts to bite in Kenya

One of the world’s most influential scientists has warned that climate change could devastate Africa, predicting an increase in catastrophic food shortages.

Professor Sir Gordon Conway, the outgoing chief scientist at the UK’s Department for International Development, and former head of the philanthropic Rockefeller Foundation, argued in a new scientific paper (pdf) that the continent is already warming faster than the global average and that people living there can expect more intense droughts, floods and storm surges.

There will be less drinking water, diseases such as malaria will spread and the poorest will be hit the hardest as farmland is damaged in the coming century, Conway wrote.

“There is already evidence that Africa is warming faster than the global average, with more warm spells and fewer extremely cold days. Northern and southern Africa are likely to become as much as 4C hotter over the next 100 years, and [will become ] much drier,” he said.

Conway predicts hunger on the continent could increase dramatically in the short term as droughts and desertification increase, and climate change affects water supplies. “Projected reductions in crop yields could be as much as 50% by 2020 and 90% by 2100,” the paper says.

Conway held out some hope that east Africa and the Horn of Africa, presently experiencing its worst drought and food shortages in 20 years, will become wetter. But he said that the widely hoped-for 8-15% increase in African crop yields as a direct result of more CO2 in the atmosphere may fail to materialise.

“The latest analyses of more realistic field trials suggest the benefits of carbon dioxide may be significantly less than initially thought,” he said.

Instead, population growth combined with climate change would mean countries face extreme problems growing more food: “We are going to need an awful lot more crop production, 70-100% more food will be needed than we have at present. Part of [what is needed] is getting more organic matter into Africa’s soils, which are very depleted, but we also have to improve water availability and produce crops that yield more, and use nitrogen and water more efficiently.”

Sir Gordon, now professor of international development at Imperial College London, oversaw a major expansion in the UK government’s support for GM research in developing countries, and said that new technologies must be part of the African response to tackling hunger and droughts. “In certain circumstances we will need GM crops because we wont be able to find the gene naturally. GM may be the speediest and most efficient way to increase yields. Drought tolerance is governed by a range of genes. It is a big problem for breeders of [both] GM and ordinary plants”, he said.

He called for more research into climate change. “There is much that we do not know. The Sahel may get wetter or remain dry. The flow of the Nile may be greater or less. We do not know if the fall in agricultural production will be very large or relatively small. The best assumption is that many regions of Africa will suffer more droughts and floods with greater intensity and frequency. We have to plan for the certainty that more extreme events will occur in the future but with uncertain regularity”.

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Climate change in Russia’s Arctic tundra: ‘Our reindeer go hungry. There isn’t enough pasture’

November 17th, 2009

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For 1,000 years the indigenous Nenets people have herded their reindeer along the Yamal peninsula. But their survival in this remote region of north-west Siberia is under serious threat from climate change as Russia’s ancient permafrost melts

by Luke Harding

Yamal Peninsula impact of climate change on Nenet people and their reindeer herd in Siberia

t is one of the world’s last great wildernesses, a 435-mile long peninsula of lakes and squelching tundra stretching deep into the Arctic Ocean. For 1,000 years the indigenous Nenets people have migrated along the Yamal peninsula. In summer they wander northwards, taking their reindeer with them, across a landscape of boggy ponds, rhododendron-like shrubs and wind-blasted birch trees. In winter they return southwards.

But this remote region of north-west Siberia is now under heavy threat from global warming. Traditionally the Nenets travel across the frozen Ob River in November and set up camp in the southern forests around Nadym. These days, though, this annual winter pilgrimage is delayed. Last year the Nenets, together with many thousands of reindeer, had to wait until late December when the ice was finally thick enough to cross.

“Our reindeer were hungry. There wasn’t enough pasture,” Jakov Japtik, a Nenets reindeer herder, told the Guardian. “The snow is melting sooner, quicker and faster than before. In spring it’s difficult for the reindeer to pull the sledges. They get tired,” Japtik said, speaking in his camp 25kms from Yar-Sale, the capital of Russia’s Arctic Yamal-Nenets district.

Herders say that the peninsula’s weather is increasingly unpredictable – with unseasonal snowstorms when the reindeer give birth in May, and milder longer autumns. In winter temperatures used to go down to -50C. Now they are typically -30C, according to Japtik. “Obviously we prefer -30C. But the changes aren’t good for the reindeer and ultimately what

is good for the reindeer is good for us,” he said, setting off on his sled to round up his itinerant reindeer herd.

Japtik lives on the tundra in a reindeer-skin tent or chum (ital) with his wife, mother, and three-year-old nephew Albert. There is also baby Pasha. The Japtiks live with three other families; the group has around 600 reindeer. The family slaughters a reindeer every couple of weeks, eating it raw and with pasta. They also catch fish – slicing off filets of sushi-like whitefish, taken from the thousands of virgin-lakes across the peninsula.

Here in one of the most remote parts of the planet there are clear signs the environment is under strain. Last year the Nenets arrived at a regular summer camping spot and discovered that half of their lake had disappeared. It had drained away after a landslide. While landslides can occur naturally, scientists say there is unmistakable evidence that Yamal’s ancient permafrost is melting. The Nenets report other curious changes – fewer mosquitoes and a puzzling increase in gadflies.

“It’s an indication of the global warming process, like the opening of the Arctic waters for shipping this summer,” says Vladimir Tchouprov, Greenpeace Russia’s energy unit head. The melting of Russia’s permafrost could have catastrophic results for the world, Tchouprov says, by releasing billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide and the potent greenhouse gas methane, that was previously trapped in frozen soil.

Russia – the world’s biggest country by geographical area – is already warming at one and a half times the rate of other parts of the world. If global temperatures do go up by the 4C many scientists fear, the impact on Russia would be disastrous. Much of Russia’s northern region would be turned into impenetrable swamp. Houses in several Arctic towns are already badly subsiding.

Many Russians, however, are sceptical that climate change exists. Others rationalise that it might bring benefits to one of the world’s coldest countries, freeing up a melting Arctic for oil and gas exploration, and extending the country’s brief growing season. Russia’s scientific community seems sceptical of global warming and the Kremlin doesn’t appear to regard the issue as a major domestic problem; public awareness of climate change in Russia is lower than in any other European country.

Western politicians, however, point out that it is in Russia’s interests to take action on climate change and to push for ambitious targets at December’s Copenhagen summit. “There is 5,000 miles of railway track built on permafrost. It could crumble as a result of melting,” Ed Miliband, the secretary of state for climate change, pointed out during a recent visit to Moscow.

However, even Russians working in the Arctic are unconvinced that their country faces a serious climate-change problem. “It’s rubbish. It’s invented. People who spend too long sitting at home have made up climate change,” Alexander Chikmaryov, who runs a remote weather station on the Yamal peninsula, said, standing in his dilapidated station strewn with rusting engine parts and a broken-down wind turbine.

Chikmaryov lives in Marresale, an outpost on the Yamal peninsula’s north-west coast overlooking the Kara Sea. A small community of Nenets hunters live nearby; otherwise there’s nobody for a hundred kilometres. The weather here is, not surprisingly, bitterly cold; the sea freezes nine months of the year. The word Yamal means “end of the world” in Nenets language, and in Marresale you see why.

In fact, Chikmaryov’s own data suggests that global warming is a real problem here too. In 2008 the ice was 164cm thick; this year it is 117cm. Winter temperatures have gone up too – from lows of -50C in 1914, when the station was founded, to -40C today. Every year large chunks of the coast on which the station is precariously perched fall into the sea. On the beach there is a jagged layer of thawing permafrost.

And there are other unnatural signs. On 15 August a large polar bear ambled into Marresale and started rooting through the station’s rubbish bin. “It was 7pm. The bear was enormous. We set off a flare. It ran off,” she recalled. Polar bear sightings are becoming increasingly common – with the bears apparently venturing south from their far-northern habitat in search of food. “They are an impudent lot. They aren’t afraid of humans,” Ludmilla says, gleefully recalling how one polar bear ripped the scalp from a Russian scientist living on Franz Josef Land.

Back on the tundra Japitik was rounding up his reindeer. Some were already back at the camp; their munching resembled the soft clicking of a thousand knitting needles. “I’ve lived all of my life in the tundra,” he said.

“The reindeer for us are everything – food, transport and accommodation. The only thing I hope is that we will be able to carry on with this life.”

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Arctic summer ice could disappear within decades, survey data suggests

November 17th, 2009

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Catlin Arctic survey finds evidence that ice is thinning more rapidly than expected, say analysts

by David Adam

A pioneering expedition to the north pole has confirmed that Arctic ice is thinner than expected, highlighting fears that the region could be free of ice in the summertime within a few decades.

The Catlin Arctic Survey, led by polar explorer Pen Hadow, found that the area covered by their survey was covered almost entirely by ice less than one year old. The region, in the northern part of the Beaufort sea, used to contain older, thicker ice that formed over several years, and is more resistant to summertime melting.

The survey, carried out earlier this year to increase understanding of the impact of climate change in the Arctic, was beset with technical difficulties and ended with the three explorers being plucked from the ice 300 miles short of the pole, their original destination.

Peter Wadhams of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the University of Cambridge, who analysed the team’s findings, said: “With a larger part of the region now first year ice, it is clearly more vulnerable. The area is now more likely to become open water each summer, bringing forward the potential date when the summer ice will be completely gone.”

The average thickness of the ice floes measured by the team was 1.8m, a depth considered too thin to survive the next summer’s ice melt season. The team’s data has not yet been published, but will be submitted to the journal Cold Regions Science and Technology.

Announcing the findings at a press conference yesterday, Hadow said: “This is the kind of scientific work we always wanted to support, by getting to places in the Arctic which are otherwise nearly impossible to reach for research purposes. It’s what modern exploration should be doing.”

Problems with a radar designed to scan the ice meant the explorers were forced to make several thousand measurements of ice thickness using a handheld drill along their 300 mile route.

Wadhams said the results agreed with other studies of the region, but that the thinning could not simply be blamed on global warming. Recent changes in wind patterns in the Arctic have also contributed, he said, because it has redirected much of the floating ice.

A Nasa study this summer showed that the Arctic’s permanent blanket of ice around the North Pole has thinned by more than 40% since 2004.

While dramatic reductions in Arctic sea ice have fuelled concern about global warming and led to more dire predictions about how soon the ice could disappear, the issue has provoked controversy among scientists.

Earlier this year, Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the Met Office said “apocalyptic predictions” about the course of global warming could mislead the public. She said there was little evidence to support claims that Arctic ice has reached a tipping point and could disappear within a decade or so, as some reports have suggested. “The record-breaking losses in the past couple of years could easily be due to natural fluctuations in the weather, with summer ice increasing again over the next few years,” she said.

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